In a captivating interview on Arise TV, Basil Abia, a distinguished alumnus of the American University of Nigeria (AUN), expressed significant concerns about the methodology employed by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in rebasing national economic indicators. Abia articulated his critique with precision, highlighting critical flaws in the choice of price and weight reference periods.
During the interview, Abia acknowledged the NBS's efforts and stated, "I strongly agree with them! 2019 was fairly stable compared to these years. But why can't they use the logic expressly since the bandwidth of price reference can go as far as five years? Why can't they pick 2019? It presents a problem even for researchers who are doing our time series analysis."
He explained that the decision to use 2024 as the price reference period and 2023 as the weight reference period creates challenges for researchers attempting to analyze and predict economic trends. He argued that notable instability and global shocks in recent years have distorted the economic landscape, making it difficult to derive accurate insights from such a methodology.
"We are unable to capture the actual behavior projecting patterns of price behavior, especially consumption patterns that come with price shocks for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024," Abia noted.
He further elaborated on the unprecedented economic shocks Nigeria has experienced in recent years, starting with global disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, which trickled into the country's microeconomic environment. On the domestic front, Abia highlighted the transformative economic policies introduced in 2023 under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration.
These included the devaluation of the Naira, the implementation of a uniform exchange rate, market-reflective electricity tariffs, and the historic removal of the fuel subsidy after 48 years. "These are the things that generated legendary price shocks," he emphasized. "Consumption patterns changed drastically. We see families spending close to 90% of their earnings on feeding every month."
In addition to his technical critique, Abia raised concerns about transparency in the NBS's methodology. He questioned the sudden change from 2022, previously identified as the price reference year, to 2024, suggesting that such decisions could fuel public skepticism about political influence in economic reporting.
"This decision does not account for the drastic changes in consumption patterns and price behavior precipitated by these shocks. It undermines the ability to conduct meaningful economic analysis and could lead to misguided policy decisions," he argued.
Abia's articulate critique has sparked conversations among policymakers, researchers, and economic analysts. As an AUN alumnus, Abia continues to exemplify the university's commitment to producing leaders and thinkers who engage critically with pressing national and global issues. His interview calls for transparency and methodological rigor in shaping Nigeria's economic future.
Reported by Aishatu Munnauwarah Yahya