AUN researcher and Natural & Environmental Science graduate Ms. Oluwadamilola Aiyewumi on July 20 presented a paper at the prestigious international conference (BIOMESIP-COVID-19) on Covid-19.
Ms. Oluwadamilola's research paper co-authored with her AUN supervisor, Professor Malachy Okeke of the Natural & Environmental Science department, is entitled "Forecasting the Nigerian COVID-19 Epidemic: An Application of ARIMA Time Series Model".
A first-class graduate from the NES program, Damilola's paper is derived from her SRP project supervised by Dr. Okeke, who himself has published numerous research papers in prestigious peer-reviewed journals.
The research "utilized extensive historical data to generate an accurate estimation and prediction of the number of expected cumulative Nigerian COVID-19 cases. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique was used to examine the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria from December 22 2020, to March 23 2021, as well as the use of the Nigerian epidemiological data both nationally and regionally to forecast the size and trajectory of the epidemic growth curve”.
The researchers predicted the continued rise in COVID-19 cases in Nigeria "under the notion that the data utilized is credible and that the future will follow the same pattern as the past, underlying estimates based on the ARIMA model predicted that the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria and the states, Lagos, Kano, and Adamawa."
As a justification, the "study offers much promise for planning and making decisions to quell the epidemic from spreading further in Nigeria, and it provides objective projections for confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases in the next days, according to the various COVID periods of the underlying states".
Last year, Professor Okeke and Damilola co-authored a paper on Covid-19 infordemics in Nigeria. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7568914/).
Please click on this link to watch Ms. Damilola's presentation
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R5zSQlIqYXVpC6S0seYm_xgShrJQYKKv/view?usp=drive_web